Calculate my risk again using the VACO Index
Understanding my Risk of Death from COVID-19
Your Risk
You are a 65 year old male.

7% risk of dying within 30 days of COVID-19 infection.

100 patients similar to you.

What is the VACO Index?

The VACO Index uses your pre-COVID health status to estimate your risk of dying from COVID-19. Knowing your risk can better help you understand what's at stake if you don't take the necessary precautions to stay safe.

This tool was developed by Dr. Amy Justice, Dr. Joseph King, and others from Yale University and the VA Connecticut Healthcare System in collaboration with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the CDC, NIH, VA, and the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response.

Who does this apply to?

You can use it on yourself, your family, your friends (anyone, really) to help understand the risk - and potentially provide guidance for preventative measures (e.g. social distancing, exposure, more). It’s best used on infected or newly infected patients, as the way the VACO Index is designed, it does not get worse or better based on clinical symptoms and lab values.

If my rate of death is low, is there anything else to worry about?

Yes, keep in mind COVID-19 can do permanent damage even if it doesn’t kill the patient. This tool does NOT measure that type of damage.

For more info, see the FAQ on the VACO Index calc page.

References
  1. King JT Jr, Yoon JS, Rentsch CT, Tate JP, Park LS, Kidwai-Khan F, Skanderson M, Hauser RG, Jacobson DA, Erdos J, Cho K, Ramoni R, Gagnon DR, Justice AC. Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index. PLoS One. 2020 Nov 11;15(11):e0241825.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33175863/
  2. King JT, Yoon JS, Bredl ZM, et al. Accuracy of the Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (Vaco) Index for predicting short-term mortality among 1,307 Yale New Haven Hospital inpatients and 427,224 Medicare patients. medRxiv. Published online January 4, 2021:2021.01.01.20249069.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.01.20249069v1
  3. Centers for Disease C, Prevention. Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html (accessed December 2020)
  4. Schwarze ML, Barnato AE, Rathouz PJ, et al. Development of a list of high-risk operations for patients 65 years and older. JAMA Surg. 2015;150(4):325-331.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25692282/
  5. Best Health Degrees. Your Chances of Dying.
    https://www.besthealthdegrees.com/health-risks/ (accessed December 2020)
Let's Compare the Risk
You are 8.4x more likely to die from COVID-19 than the flu.

Risk of Death:

1 in 14

COVID-19

1 in 120

Flu*

1 in 100

High Risk Surgery

1 in 500

Base Jumping

1 in 6,700

Car Accident

1 in 500,000

Bungee Jumping
*Flu risk adjusted for age

What is the VACO Index?

The VACO Index uses your pre-COVID health status to estimate your risk of dying from COVID-19. Knowing your risk can better help you understand what's at stake if you don't take the necessary precautions to stay safe.

This tool was developed by Dr. Amy Justice, Dr. Joseph King, and others from Yale University and the VA Connecticut Healthcare System in collaboration with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the CDC, NIH, VA, and the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response.

Who does this apply to?

You can use it on yourself, your family, your friends (anyone, really) to help understand the risk - and potentially provide guidance for preventative measures (e.g. social distancing, exposure, more). It’s best used on infected or newly infected patients, as the way the VACO Index is designed, it does not get worse or better based on clinical symptoms and lab values.

If my rate of death is low, is there anything else to worry about?

Yes, keep in mind COVID-19 can do permanent damage even if it doesn’t kill the patient. This tool does NOT measure that type of damage.

For more info, see the FAQ on the VACO Index calc page.

References
  1. King JT Jr, Yoon JS, Rentsch CT, Tate JP, Park LS, Kidwai-Khan F, Skanderson M, Hauser RG, Jacobson DA, Erdos J, Cho K, Ramoni R, Gagnon DR, Justice AC. Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index. PLoS One. 2020 Nov 11;15(11):e0241825.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33175863/
  2. King JT, Yoon JS, Bredl ZM, et al. Accuracy of the Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (Vaco) Index for predicting short-term mortality among 1,307 Yale New Haven Hospital inpatients and 427,224 Medicare patients. medRxiv. Published online January 4, 2021:2021.01.01.20249069.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.01.20249069v1
  3. Centers for Disease C, Prevention. Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html (accessed December 2020)
  4. Schwarze ML, Barnato AE, Rathouz PJ, et al. Development of a list of high-risk operations for patients 65 years and older. JAMA Surg. 2015;150(4):325-331.
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25692282/
  5. Best Health Degrees. Your Chances of Dying.
    https://www.besthealthdegrees.com/health-risks/ (accessed December 2020)