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    • Calcs that help predict probability of a diseaseDiagnosis
    • Subcategory of 'Diagnosis' designed to be very sensitiveRule Out
    • Disease is diagnosed: prognosticate to guide treatmentPrognosis
    • Numerical inputs and outputsFormula
    • Med treatment and moreTreatment
    • Suggested protocolsAlgorithm

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    Patent Pending

    For Patients: VACO Index COVID-19 Mortality Risk

    For use by non-clinicians. Calculate your or a loved one's risk of dying within 30 days of contracting COVID-19. See risk visualization in results for more info.

    INSTRUCTIONS

    After calculating a result, see our helpful aid to visualize your covid risk (link in the results box).

    IMPORTANT

    This is a patient-facing tool. The healthcare provider version of the VACO Index is available here. Developed in collaboration with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the CDC, NIH, VA, and the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response.

    FAQS

    Frequently Asked Questions

    1. What is the VACO Index?

    The VACO Index uses your pre-COVID health status to estimate your risk of dying from COVID-19. Knowing your risk can better help you understand what's at stake if you don't take the necessary precautions to stay safe.

    This tool was developed by Dr. Amy Justice, Dr. Joseph King, and others from Yale University and the VA Connecticut Healthcare System in collaboration with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the CDC, NIH, VA, and the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response.

    2. Who does this apply to?

    You can use it on yourself, your family, your friends (anyone, really) to help understand the risk - and potentially provide guidance for preventative measures (e.g. social distancing, exposure, more). It’s best used on infected or newly infected patients, as the way the VACO Index is designed, it does not get worse or better based on clinical symptoms and lab values. 

    3. If my rate of death is low, is there anything else to worry about?

    Yes, keep in mind COVID-19 can do permanent damage even if it doesn’t kill the patient. This tool does NOT measure that type of damage.

    4. Is the death rate from COVID-19 similar to that of the flu?

    Typically, the risk of dying from COVID-19 is 8-12 times HIGHER than the risk of dying from the flu. After you calculate a result, click on the yellow “Visualize Results” button to see a breakdown of your risk.

    5. Who created this tool?

    The VACO Index was developed by Drs. King and Justice from Yale/VA in collaboration with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), including the CDC, NIH, VA, and the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response. See Creator Insights for more info.

    6. What is MDCalc?

    MDCalc is a physician-run medical reference for clinical decision tools and content, used by doctors around the world including ⅔ of U.S. doctors weekly. We are proud to work with the HHS, the ASPR, and the VACO Index creators to help get this important tool in use. See our About Us page for more info.

    If you believe you have been exposed to or have COVID-19, talk with your doctor.

    years
    Female
    Male
    None
    0
    Diabetes without complications
    +1
    Diabetes, with complications (e.g., eyes, kidneys, ketoacidosis)
    +2
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +2
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    None
    0
    Cancer (except skin cancer)
    +2
    Cancer, metastatic (cancer spreading to another part of the body)
    +6
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    None
    0
    Liver disease, mild (e.g., viral hepatitis B or C, alcoholic hepatitis)
    +1
    Liver disease, moderate or severe (e.g., esophageal varices, fatty liver, liver failure)
    +3
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1
    No
    0
    Yes
    +6
    No
    0
    Yes
    +1

    Result:

    Please fill out required fields.

    Next Steps
    Evidence
    Creator Insights
    Dr. Joseph King Jr.

    About the Creator

    Joseph King Jr., MD, MSCE, FAANS, is an Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and Director of Neurosurgical Outcomes Research at the Yale School of Medicine in Connecticut, and the Chief of Neurosurgery at the VA Connecticut Healthcare System. Dr. King's primary research is focused on using large databases to examine health care systems issues, the measurement of patient-oriented outcomes and quality of life in patients with neurologic disease.

    To view Dr. Joseph King Jr.'s publications, visit PubMed

    Dr. Amy Justice

    About the Creator

    Amy Justice, MD, PhD, is the CNH Long Professor of Medicine and of Public Health at Yale University and a Staff Physician at the VA Connecticut Healthcare System. As principal investigator of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS), she has more than 20 years of experience developing and validating predictive indices using electronic health record data.

    To view Dr. Amy Justice's publications, visit PubMed

    James S. Yoon

    About the Creator

    James S. Yoon is a third year medical student at Yale School of Medicine in Connecticut. His research focuses on value-based healthcare aimed at improving patient experiences through policy reforms, delivery system innovation, and outcomes research that informs safe, evidence-based clinical practices.

    To view James S. Yoon's publications, visit PubMed

    Content Contributors
    • Amy Justice, MD, PhD
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      • Amy Justice, MD, PhD