MDCalc

Acute Pancreatitis Prediction Model

Estimates the likelihood of acute pancreatitis in patients with elevated serum lipase levels prior to imaging confirmation.

Number of prior acute pancreatitis episodes

History of cholelithiasis

Abdominal surgery in prior 2 months

Epigastric pain

Worsening severity

Duration of pain (days)

Pain severity (out of 10)

Serum lipase level

Result:

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Advice
  • This model can be used in the clinical decision process for acute pancreatitis management but should not be used in isolation.
  • For patients at lower risk of pancreatitis, consider other causes of elevated lipase and/or abdominal pain. Abdominal imaging may be more beneficial in patients with an unclear diagnosis.
Management
  • Acute pancreatitis is generally managed conservatively, with efforts focused on identification of the underlying cause. 
  • Common causes of pancreatitis include choledocholithiasis, alcohol use, medications, hypertriglyceridemia, and recent ERCP.
  • Management includes fluid resuscitation, early refeeding, and pain control.
  • A prospective 2024 study suggested that a score cutoff of at least 6 maximized diagnostic accuracy. Imaging in these patients may not add to the clinical decision making process.