MDCalc

Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT™)

Predicts 10- and 30-year risk of CVD and CVD subtypes in patients aged 30-79 without known CVD.

PREVENT consists of a base model and optional add-on variables that incorporate urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), HbA1c, and zip code-level social deprivation index (SDI). The optional variables add very little predictive value, and the base model is adequate in most primary prevention patients. UACR and HbA1c are most useful in patients with severe albuminuria or diabetes, particularly if glycemic control is poor.

This tool defaults to the base model.

  • If you are using only one optional variable, select that named model for use.
  • If you have all optional variables, select the “Full” model for use.

BMI is used to estimate heart failure risk; if the patient’s BMI falls outside the studied range, this tool will not produce a heart failure risk estimate but will still generate estimates for all other cardiovascular subtypes.

Model

The base model is selected automatically. If one optional variable is available (urine albumin-creatinine ratio [UACR], HbA1c, or social deprivation index [SDI; based on ZIP code]), you may select the corresponding single-variable model. The full model can be used when all three optional variables are available.

Sex

years
mm Hg

Diabetes

Current smoker

mL/min/1.73 m²

Using anti-hypertensive medication

Using statins

kg/m²

Result:

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Advice
  • Use results to support shared decision-making around cardiovascular prevention strategies. 
  • Risk estimates should be interpreted in the context of: 
    • Patient comorbidities (e.g., diabetes, CKD, obesity).
    • Risk-enhancing factors (e.g., family history, lipoprotein(a), inflammatory conditions, coronary artery calcium score). 
    • Patient preferences.
    • Treatment goals.  
  • Consider both 10-year and 30-year risk, particularly in younger patients, where long-term risk may better inform early preventive strategies. 
  • As predicted risk increases, the intensity of lifestyle counseling and therapeutic intervention should increase accordingly. 
  • In general, lipid-lowering therapy is now recommended in individuals with a ≥3% 10-year ASCVD risk estimate.
  • Ensure management of modifiable risk factors (e.g., lipids, blood pressure, glycemia, smoking) regardless of calculated risk. 
  • Reassess risk over time as clinical status and risk factors change.
  • Evaluate for secondary causes of dyslipidemia or elevated CVD risk when appropriate.  
Management

HYPERTENSION

The 2025 AHA/ACC Guideline recommends the following hypertension management (based on 10-year total CVD risk):

  • BP ≥130/80 mmHg: 
    • Treat if risk estimate ≥7.5%, or if clinical CVD, diabetes, or CKD is present.
    • If risk estimate is <7.5%, try lifestyle modification for 3–6 months first; start medication if BP remains elevated.
  • BP ≥140/90 mmHg: Treat all adults regardless of CVD risk estimate.

PRIMARY PREVENTION

The 2026 ACC/AHA Guideline uses the following risk categories and recommended primary prevention measures (based on 10-year ASCVD risk):

  • Low (<3% risk):
    • Health behavior counseling.
    • If LDL-C 160–189 mg/dL or 30-year ASCVD risk is ≥10%, consider moderate-intensity statin therapy.
  • Borderline (3% to <5% risk):
    • Health behavior counseling.
    • Engage in risk-benefit discussion about pharmacotherapy; consider risk enhancers to personalize the decision.
    • If moderate-intensity statin therapy is initiated, target a ≥30% LDL-C reduction with a goal of LDL-C <100 mg/dL and non-HDL-C <130 mg/dL.
    • If shared decision-making does not produce a clear treatment path, consider CAC assessment.
  • Intermediate (5% to <10% risk):
    • Health behavior counseling.
    • Start moderate- to high-intensity statin therapy, targeting a ≥30% LDL-C reduction with a goal of LDL-C <100 mg/dL and non-HDL-C <130 mg/dL.
    • If uncertainty remains regarding whether to initiate therapy or its appropriate intensity, consider CAC assessment.
  • High (≥10% risk):
    • Health behavior counseling.
    • Start high-intensity statin therapy, targeting a ≥50% LDL-C reduction with a goal of LDL-C <70 mg/dL and non-HDL-C <100 mg/dL.
    • If goals are not achieved on maximally tolerated statin therapy, additional therapies (e.g., ezetimibe, PCSK9 inhibitors, bempedoic acid) may be necessary.

The following groups should receive lipid-lowering therapy regardless of calculated risk:

  • Established clinical ASCVD.
  • LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL.
  • Aged 40–75 with diabetes, chronic kidney disease stage 3 or higher, or HIV on stable combination antiretroviral therapy.

Statin Therapy Options

Statin Intensity

Taken Daily, Average LDL Lowering Effect

Medication Options

High-intensity therapy

Approximately ≥50%

Atorvastatin 40–80 mg

Rosuvastatin 20–40 mg

Moderate-intensity therapy

Approximately 30% to <50%

Atorvastatin 10–20 mg

Rosuvastatin 5–10 mg

Simvastatin 20–40 mg

Pravastatin 40–80 mg

Lovastatin 40–80 mg

Fluvastatin XL 80 mg

Fluvastatin 40 mg twice daily

Pitavastatin 1–4 mg

Low-intensity therapy

Approximately <30%

Simvastatin 10 mg

Pravastatin 10–20 mg

Lovastatin 20 mg

Fluvastatin 20–40 mg

Pitavastatin 1 mg